The Nettling Dad had a frustrating experience with what looked like a very solid UB deck. Aka the best color pair in the format. Trying to figure out what went “wrong” (or right) is one of my very favorite parts of Magic. Sometimes there are things outside of your control, e.g., mana screw/flood. Sometimes there are suboptimal plays that there is no one to blame but yourself. And then there’s murky middle ground, like the frustration of your opponent dropping a huge bomb. Feels outside of my control!!! Or did you blow your removal needlessly soon?

Anyway, teasing apart the circle of control vs. concern is just like life where we make nothing but decisions regarding the unknowable future with imperfect information. Way more fun doing this with zombies and dragons than figuring out the right school for our offspring. So let’s get to work!

deck

Nice deck! Looks like a very straightforward UB deck with some good zombie value (Siege Zombie x3, Larder Zombie), good value creatures (Falcon Abom, Ecstatic Awakener, Nebelgeist Intruder) ) and a legit sweeper bomb with the Meathook Massacre. So let’s jump to the Epic Match.

Round four (link)

On the play we see this for our opening hand. 2-land obviously isn’t ideal, but having a 2-drop that can be happily sacrificed to Eaten Alive to blunt a fast start is great. Best of all we start with our bomb: The Meathook Massacre. Sweepers are great, but sweepers that also drain life and stick around for more value are fantastic. Our game plan is clear: slow-roll the board to get oppo to overcommit and then sweep for value and grind out the win.

turn 7

At turn 7 (our 4th) we hit our first major decision point. We have whiffed on two land drops, which isn’t a good feeling. Oppo has developed their board quite nicely but not overwhelmingly. Do we use our removal spell on their creature and draw a card off the Novice Occultist? It’s a close call. We aren’t under overwhelming pressure and oppo isn’t really incentivized to attack into Occultist (or pay 2-mana to clear the way). Especially with TMM in hand, I’d be inclined to wait and try and find a better target for our best removal spell. But Nettling Dad casts, gets the island, and is off to the races.

turn 9

Oppo has missed some land and we’ve caught up. Do we cast the Falcon and put some pressure on or do we hold our mana up, maybe snag with Nebelgast? Again, with TMM in hand, if oppo isn’t building the board and I’m not being attacked, I see no reason to extend myself into the board.

turn 12

Here is a slight misplay. Opponent attacks with their Lunarch Veteran. Aha! Time to snap off a sweet 2-for-1 with the Nebelgast! At long last our patience has paid off. Except with the Trapper out, the oppo will have time to tap it before going to blocks. All this does is prevent one damage, maybe we ping in for a few points of damage before it dies to our own Meathook Massacre.

turn 15

Time to Meathook Massacre! Some great value here (also sweet using Rotten Reunion to snag the Rise of the Ants). But just think how much better our board would be with a Nebelghast Intruder in hand! Or both the Intruder and Falcon.

turn 22

Opponent is feeling aggressive and uses the Trapper to enable an attack for 3 damage, which I don’t think is a good play. Regardless, we have 2-mana up. Do we Startle to cantrip, create a 2/2 zombie and prevent 2 damage? This is a close call. I think–on net–it’s the right play. It builds the board for a crack-back and keeps drawing when we’re in a topdeck war.

turn 23

Awkward screenshot to highlight that The Meathook Massacre is still up, despite the Trapbreaker being flipped. We have two options: change it day to protect our TMM (i.e., double-cast Intruder & Abomination) or swing out to get two extra TMM triggers. Otherwise the Trapbreaker kills the TMM for free on attack next turn. Nettling Dad does neither, keeping Zombies back for future value and loses the TMM.

turn 25

Game has progressed quite a bit and has turned into a topdeck war. We have the advantage with a bigger creature and a solid hand. Another chance to swing out, putting oppo at 10 life and we have a second flier and countermagic in hand. Again, Nettling does not swing out. I think this is a missed opportunity, as if we flip oppo to the defensive, they have to decide between tapping our 4/4 or flier and either way we’re still getting in.

turn 26

Well, we SORT of have countermagic in hand. We can’t stop the Celestus, oppo has 5 untapped lands. However we should still absolutely cast it to get a zombie and prevent an loot/gain life activation this turn. At this point, with oppo having 9 mana up, it is unlikely that we’ll get a full card’s worth of value from our Flip the Switch. Time to get what value we can.

In the end, the Celestus turns the tide for oppo, churning through their deck and juuuuust gaining enough life to offset the fliers. Very close game! I think some of the small chances missed (not rushing out creatures with TMM in hand, some small edges of damage missed with TMM) ended up being the difference.